Forum:2014 Pacific typhoon season/Rammasun
09W.RAMMASUN 92W.INVEST While I don't normally care too much about WPac invests, this one could be potentially devastating for Ryukyu, Taiwan and China. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 23:28, July 9, 2014 (UTC) :Invest 92W is at 9.1N 151.8E, 103 nm north of Chuuk. Multispectural satellite imagery shows a compact system with formative bands tightening into an obscured LLCC. With dual outflow enhanced by a TUTT cell to Invest 92W's northeast and western outflow enchanced by strong easterly winds, there is a pretty favorable enviornment for the invest. Per the JTWC, GFS is very aggressive with this system. JTWC winds - 10 to 15 knots (10 to 15 mph), JTWC pressure - 1007 mbar (hPa). Chances for development in the next 24 hours - medium. AndrewTalk To Me 02:22, July 10, 2014 (UTC) JMA Tropical Depression Invest 92W is now located at 9.9N 151.7E, 455 nm east-southeast of Andersen Air Force Base in Guam. Multiple tubal satellite imagery reveals a compact system obscuring a consolidated LLCC. An SSMIS microwave image reveals most of the deep convection is over the western quadrant of the invest, wrapping into the LLCC. With the TUTT cell and western outflow still present, numerical weather models, namely GFS, are being super aggressive with the invest. Winds are estimated to be at 20 to 25 knots (25 to 30 mph) (1-minute) with a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg) per the JTWC. Because of increasing organization and favorable conditions, the agency has raised Invest 92W's probability for formation in the next 24 hours to high and issued a TCFA. Meanwhile, the JMA have classified the invest as a tropical depression with winds of <55 km/h (30 knots, 35 mph) (10-minute winds) and a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg). I am really scared as to what will happen next. AndrewTalk To Me 13:03, July 10, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Depression 09W The JTWC have initiated advisories on Tropical Depression 09W. Located 303 nm east-southeast of Andersen Air Force Base, they report winds of 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (1-minute) gusting to 40 knots (45 mph, 70 km/h). The JTWC forecast for the depression looks rather scary for the next few days. They show a modest typhoon of 95 knots (110 mph, 175 km/h) (1-minute) with gusts of 115 knots (130 mph, 210 km/h) aimed straight for the Philippines, which could affect thousands. On the JMA side, they report the same intensity as before, and predict intensification into a tropical storm in 24 hours to 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-minute)/998 mbar (hPa; 29.47 inHg). Tropical Depression 09W looks to be very scary. I hope everyone is prepared for what is to come. AndrewTalk To Me 20:37, July 10, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm 09W Nothing much has changed on the JMA side. However, the JTWC have upgraded Tropical Depression 09W to a weak 35 knot (40 mph, 65 km/h) (1-minute winds) tropical storm with gusts of 45 knots (50 mph, 80 km/h). Located 224 nm east-southeast of Andersen Air Force Base, they forecast the storm to slam into Luzon as a 110 knot (125 mph) (1-minute winds) major typhoon with gusts of 135 knots (155 mph). The models were not kidding with this system. In fact, 09W looks more like a strong tropical storm on satellite imagery! AndrewTalk To Me 02:38, July 11, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Depression 09W (2nd time) Yikes, it looks like the shear ate up some of 09W overnight. The JTWC have lowered the system's winds to 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (1-minute) gusting to 40 knots (45 mph, 70 km/h), while the JMA have upped its pressure to 1008 mbar (hPa; 29.77 inHg). I know tropical storm warnings were in effect for Guam, but I am not sure if they have been cancelled, as Tropical Depression 09W is basically 63 nm east-southeast of Andersen Air Force Base. The JMA now delays the depression's intensification to a tropical storm for another 24 hours, and the JTWC has lowered their forecast peak for 09W to 95 knots (110 mph) (1-minute winds) gusting to 115 knots (130 mph). Maybe this depression will not be as bad as some models feared... AndrewTalk To Me 22:05, July 11, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Rammasun (Glenda) It has been named Rammasun by JMA. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:51, July 12, 2014 (UTC) : Forecast to become a cat 2 as it hits the Philippines, then weaken to a cat 1 as it heads into the SCS and eventually into southern China or northern Vietnam. Earlier on I was fearing Rammasun could threaten HK, but now it looks as though it will stay south of them. Ryan1000 21:57, July 12, 2014 (UTC) ::Wow, Rammasun (the name for the Thai god of thunder) has struggled much more than I expected, primarily due to the wind shear. Even with some more convective banding, the JMA declare the storm's winds to 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-minute) and a pressure of 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg). The JTWC also reports winds of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-minute) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph, 80 km/h). The JMA does expect modest intensification to 85 knots (100 mph) (10-minute winds)/950 mbar (hPa) in the next 48 to 72 hours before landfall over Luzon. The JTWC expect Rammasun to scrape Luzon with winds of 80 to 85 knots (90 to 100 mph) (1-minute) gusting to 105 knots (120 mph) before entering the South China Sea. Afterwards, I feel Hainan and Greater Nanning will get directly affected by the storm. He may look weak right now, but do not underestimate the god of thunder! AndrewTalk To Me 22:33, July 12, 2014 (UTC) :::Rammasun has gotten no better organized on satellite imagery. Neither the JMA nor the JTWC have made any changes in its intensity. The JMA now only expects a peak of 75 knots (85 mph) (10-minute winds)/965 mbar (hPa) before landfall over the Philippines. The JTWC have lowered their forecast peak before landfall to 65 knots (75 mph) (1-minute winds) with gusts of 80 knots (90 mph). However, they do expect reintensification to 80 knots (90 mph) (1-minute winds) gusting to 100 knots (115 mph) before landfall in southern China. I am starting to feel this blob might actually affect China more than the Philippines. AndrewTalk To Me 12:34, July 13, 2014 (UTC) ::::The JMA have lowered Rammasun's pressure to 998 mbar (hPa; 29.47 inHg), but they report no change in winds. No new updates from the JTWC. The JMA have further lowered their forecast peak to 70 knots (80 mph) (10-minute winds)/970 mbar (hPa) at its Philippine landfall. I am actually beginning to doubt if Rammasun can even make it to typhoon intensity before then. Meanwhile, PAGASA has named the storm Glenda and estimate its winds to be 65 km/h (35 knots, 40 mph) (10-minute). Signal #1 has been raised for the Catanduanes region of the Philippines, which is being advised to take safe precautions, as rains of 7.5 to 15 mm/hr (0.75 to 1.5 cm/hr) are expected within 400 km of Rammsun/Glenda's core. As always, stay safe, Philippines! AndrewTalk To Me 18:01, July 13, 2014 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Rammasun Rammasun is on the doorstep of typhoon intensity. The JMA report an intensity of 60 knots (70 mph, 110 km/h) (10-minute winds)/980 mbar (hPa; 28.94 inHg), while the JTWC report winds of 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h) (1-minute) gusting to 80 knots (90 mph, 145 km/h). The JMA expect a pressure of 965 mbar (hPa) at its Philippine landfall, while the JTWC predict Rammasun to reach 80 knots (90 mph) (1-minute winds) gusting to 100 knots (115 mph) before landfall. From here, the JMA keep the system a severe tropical storm to China, while the JTWC predict reintensification to Category 2 intensity (90 knots/105 mph (1-minute winds) with gusts to 105 knots/120 mph). The Philippines should continue to prepare for Glenda/Rammasun. AndrewTalk To Me 11:31, July 14, 2014 (UTC) : Uh oh, doesn't seem good for Philippines and China. They'll need to prepare looks like. Stay safe Philippines and China!--Steve820 18:42, July 14, 2014 (UTC) Typhoon Rammasun (Glenda) Our third official typhoon of the season is here. 65 kts (10-min)/975 mbar per the JMA, 80 kts (1-min) per the JTWC. Both agencies call for Rammasun to reach 70 kts (10-min) and 90 kts (1-min), respectively, before it arrives in the Philippines, but I wouldn't be surprised if those predictions end up being too low; Rammasun's been making great strides in its organization over the past couple of days, and its eye is looking healthier and healthier. It looks like Rammasun waited until not long before landfall to finally get its act together, unfortunately. Let's hope it's not too bad for the Philippines. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:04, July 14, 2014 (UTC) : Well this was a surprise, Rammasun exploded right before landfall, it's now a 115 mph category 3 storm, still a typhoon by JMA. However, this still doesn't change the direction of its forecast track in the long run, except that it's forecast to be near the cat 3 intensity it is now by the time it hits Hainan Island. Ryan1000 10:10, July 15, 2014 (UTC) : Rammasun is expected to pass by Manila tomorrow afternoon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:54, July 15, 2014 (UTC) ::110 kts/125 mph (1-min) now per the JTWC. The JMA sets Rammasun's intensity at 85 kts/100 mph (10-min), 950 mbar. HOPEFULLY that should be it for now. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:57, July 15, 2014 (UTC) :::Yeah, hopefully that'll be it before it makes landfall in the Philippines. I hope them and China are prepared for this thing, since it could get a bit destructive.--Steve820 16:23, July 15, 2014 (UTC) :::::This storm is kinda reminding me of Xangsane in 2006 (which was retired after that year), although it won't get as strong, it exploded right before hitting the Philippines and could be a severe storm for the capital of Manila. Also, unfortunately, the latest forecast calls for Rammasun to hit 135 mph before hitting Hainan Island. Hopefully the shear near southern China persists long enough to eat it before it reaches them, I already have enough bad feelings about this one so far. Ryan1000 19:23, July 15, 2014 (UTC) :::::Wow, I'm pretty surprised about how much Rammasun has managed to strengthen. Hopefully it isn't too bad for the Phillippines, and the next threat will be China, and hopefully it won't be too bad for them either. Simlover123 21:59, July 15, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Rammasun definitely snuck in some intensity right there. Fortunately, it has crashed down to 80 knots (90 mph, 145 km/h) (10-minute winds)/955 mbar (hPa; 28.20 inHg) per the JMA. The JTWC has it just shy of Category 4 intensity - 110 knots (125 mph, 205 km/h) (1-minute winds) with gusts of 135 knots (155 mph, 250 km/h). I was definitely right when I said to fear the Thai god of thunder. Three fishermen have been reported missing shortly after Rammasun's landfall. Both the JTWC and JMA blast Rammasun into Hainan as a full-fledged typhoon before possibly affecting Nanning and Hanoi directly as well. I will say the Philippines did take Glenda (Rammasun) very seriously. They suspended classes, cancelled embassy interviews, issued multiple public warnings and signals, and prepared evacuation centers. No deaths have been reported from Rammasun, and I hope it stays that way. AndrewTalk To Me 00:56, July 16, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Sorry, Andrew, but since you made that post, 20 deaths have been confirmed in the Phillipines. I hope it doesn't go higher than that but it's not over yet. Also aren't the Phillipines still recovering from Haiyan as well? also, some good news is that this has now weakened back to a category 1 typhoon. leeboy100 (talk) 20:04, July 16, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Also there are at least 6,000 people stranded in seaports throughout the Phillipines. If they don't get rescued soon, the death toll could be horrendous! I hope they get rescued before it's too late. (Actually I think they have already been rescued) nobody wants another deadly typhoon in the Phillipines. leeboy100 (talk) 20:07, July 16, 2014 (UTC) (updated 20:11, July, 16, 2014 (UTC)) :::::::Rammasun is still displaying some convective feature despite the demise of its eye feature. Now aiming for Hainan, the typhoon has weakened to winds of 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h) (1 and 10-minute) per both the JMA and JTWC. The JMA reports a pressure of 970 mbar (hPa; 28.64 inHg), while the JTWC reports gusts of 100 knots (115 mph, 185 km/h). The JMA and JTWC both expect reintensification - to just shy of Category 2 intensity - before landfall over Hainan. As a side note, the JTWC have upgraded its best track so Rammasun was the first C4 landfall on the Philippines since Haiyan. So far, ninety percent of Metro Manila is without power, and several slum communities have been destroyed. Leeboy, it is sad to hear all those fatalities occurred. I hope the number does not climb much higher, and Rammasun is no less destructive for southern China. AndrewTalk To Me 22:15, July 16, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Oh my gosh I feel bad for the Phillippines. :( Let's hope it won't be anything destructive in Hainan.--Steve820 04:46, July 17, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::40 deaths so far. PHP 1 billion worth of damages. 3 million people in various parts of Luzon still without electricity. Glenda would be retired. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:01, July 17, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::Yeah, I'm sure Glenda's going to be retired now! It has really caused destruction and major impacts in the Philippines. Let's hope it won't be the same for Hainan.--Steve820 17:32, July 17, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::Just in from Twitter: "18z Best Track ups Rammasun to 140 mph Cat 4 equivalent. Significant impacts in Hainan expected." That wasn't necessary, Rammasun, what gives? If the damage in the Philippines hasn't sealed Rammasun's fate, then the effects in Hainan could easily do just that. Say hello to the first retirement candidate of the season. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 19:09, July 17, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::By the way, am I the only one who disagrees with the Philippines' arbitrary retirement qualifications? If it's a bad storm, it's a bad storm. You don't need 300 dead or 1 billion PHP to determine that. What, if a storm kills 280 people but only does 990 million PHP in damage, are they gonna snub it? --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 19:13, July 17, 2014 (UTC) (←)Well, in that case, Dylan, I would certainly think that PAGASA storm name should be retired regardless. Rammasun is closing in on Hainan. The JMA now report winds of 85 knots (100 mph, 155 km/h) (10-minute winds) and a pressure of 945 mbar (hPa; 27.91 inHg). The JTWC have reported Rammasun to have become a major typhoon once more - 120 knot winds (140 mph, 225 km/h) (1-minute winds) gusting to 145 knots (165 mph, 265 km/h). Gulp. Rammasun is expected to slam into Hainan and southern China as a super typhoon per the JTWC. Ryan, meet your younger brother. He is the Thai god of thunder, and he fears nothing. It is really sad to see a catastrophe like this occur. AndrewTalk To Me 19:31, July 17, 2014 (UTC) : Yeah my name was only used to name one of two super typhoons in the South China Sea (Chanchu in 2006 being the other), and while Rammasun might fall short of 150 mph, Hainan Island is not a fan of powerful typhoons, Hagupit in 2008 was the last big one to hit them, albeit much later in the season. If Rammasun hits China at its current 140 mph intensity, it would be one of only two category 4 or stronger typhoons to hit China before the month of August (Vicente of 2012 being the other) and the strongest pre-August landfall on Hainan Island. Hopefully they get prepared, the "god of thunder" shows no signs of letting up anytime soon. Ryan1000 20:56, July 17, 2014 (UTC) : 54 deaths and PHP 4.5 billion worth of damages in the Philippines so far. Rammasun just became a super typhoon with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph (250 km/h). 100 mph (165 km/h) if 10-minute sustained winds would be considered. Landfall in Hainan expected within 24-48 hours. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:32, July 18, 2014 (UTC) ::: It looks like Ramasun is now the third super typhoon to exist in the South China Sea, and is set to be the strongest pre-August landfall in China on record, let alone the strongest typhoon to hit China on record (no category 5 has hit the country before, but there have been quite a handfull of cat 4's, none of which were as strong as Rammasun). Ryan1000 11:51, July 18, 2014 (UTC) ::::Actually, Ryan, Rammasun is the second; Chanchu was downgraded to 125 kts in post-analysis. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:35, July 18, 2014 (UTC) :::::This is pretty insane, a super typhoon in the South China Sea? Watch out Hainan, this monster is about to make landfall! JMA reports 90 kt winds with gusts to 130 kts and a pressure of 940 mbars. I haven't been able to track these storms properly because the JTWC site never works on my computer anymore, when I try to load it, it says "it took too long to respond" and I'm using Google Chrome. So I'll just use JMA to track these beasts from now on.--Steve820 15:29, July 18, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Rammasun is crashing down now. The JTWC has downgraded the typhoon to 125 knots (145 mph) (1-minute winds) gusting to 150 knots (175 mph). The system's eye is beginning to become less clear as it is tracking through the Hainan Strait. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall in extreme southwestern China near Nanning. Evacuations have been declared for northern Vietnam as of July 18. I can hardly believe Rammasun is the second South China Sea super typhoon on record. I wish southern China and the Philippines a safe recovery. Steve, here is the link to the JTWC website. AndrewTalk To Me 16:27, July 18, 2014 (UTC) ::::::I believe there have never been a cat 4 or 5 to strike Vietnam but I believe China has been hit at least once by a cat 5.Hainan saw the strongest storm to make landfall I believe from this storm.Allanjeffs 17:28, July 18, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Oh well, guess I should be checking reanalysis a little more often. :P Yeah Allan, the strongest typhoon to hit Vietnam was no bigger than cat 3, a cat 4 or 5 has never hit them, and according to the best track, China has never seen a category 5 landfalling super typhoon before, the closest one to doing so was probably Super Typhoon Cora in 1966, but it weakened to a 150 mph cat 4 just before its landfall. Ryan1000 20:29, July 18, 2014 (UTC) ::::::This is not good, Rammasun is now stronger than ever and it's headed straight for Vietnam and China, and 54 deaths have been confirmed in the Phillipines. Stay safe, everyone. leeboy100 (talk) 20:30, July 18, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Rammasun (2nd time) Rammasun made landfall in Mainland China just east of its border with Vietnam. The JTWC has issued their final advisory on the rapidly weakening system, and the JMA have downgraded the storm to 40 knots (45 mph, 70 km/h) (10-minute winds)/985 mbar (hPa; 29.09 inHg). Further land interaction should prompt even more deintensification to a tropical depression, and then dissipation within 24 hours. Unfortunately, my wish from yesterday has been proven false. Several homes and a fatality has been reported in Hainan. Also, the death toll in the Philippines has risen to 77. My prayers go to those in the Philippines, Vietnam, and China affected by Rammasun. AndrewTalk To Me 13:18, July 19, 2014 (UTC) : I really think it'll be retired now! I feel bad for all the guys in Philippines, Vietnam, and China that were affected by the typhoon. My prayers go out to them!--Steve820 17:12, July 19, 2014 (UTC) ::A total of 103 dead at this point, 89 of which are in the Philippines. Damage in PH is up and over 7.5 billion PHP, which is roughly $175 million USD. Damage in China is currently estimated at 4.95 billion yuan, or $797 million USD. Glenda was doomed to be retired a long time ago; at this point, I think Rammasun itself is on its way out as well. It wouldn't surprise me if it pulled a Nesat '11 and was snubbed, but both retirements should happen here. (Speaking of which, Juan (Megi) from 2010, which used this same PAGASA naming list, was retroactively retired about a year or so ago. It's been replaced with Jose for this year.) --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 19:20, July 19, 2014 (UTC) :::Well, at least most of the building's in one piece.--Isaac829 20:19, July 19, 2014 (UTC) :::::Yikes. Not every day you see a whole skyscraper knocked down by a typhoon. Oh and btw, about the super typhoon record in the South China Sea, it's actually happened many times before, unless they only consider reliable records to go back to a certain year. At the very least, Gloria of 1952, Betty of 1953, and Pamela of 1954 were super typhoons in the South China Sea. Ryan1000 22:39, July 19, 2014 (UTC) ::::::That is really scary to know, regarding the skyscraper. Rammasun has weakened even more to 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-minute winds)/996 mbar (hPa; 29.41 inHg). It is forecast to move very slowly across northern Vietnam and southern China before dissipation, which could prompt additional flooding. Overall damages are at $972 million (2014 USD), which makes it the season's costliest storm. I don't know if Rammasun is guaranteed retirement at this point; far deadlier storms have been snubbed by the Philippines (see Fengshen of 2008 as an example). AndrewTalk To Me 22:50, July 19, 2014 (UTC) Remnants of Rammasun Rammasun has become a low-pressure area over Yunnan Province, China. The number of fatalities are now at 108 and damage totals are at $966 million (2014 USD). An additional 317 are injured and six missing in the Philippines. Also, as a side note, this is what went down in Quezon City. AndrewTalk To Me 11:37, July 20, 2014 (UTC) :This was a very bad storm. There's a chance we might see the name be retired! Also, check out this damage!--Steve820 16:28, July 20, 2014 (UTC) ::Since this hasn't been archived yet, I should mention that Rammasun has claimed a total of 187 lives (98 in the Philippines, 62 in China, and 27 in Vietnam) and caused a total of $6.51 billion in damage ($6.25 billion in China, $249.4 million in the Philippines, and $6 million in Vietnam). That Philippine damage total is equivalent to roughly 10.8 billion PHP, or nearly 11 times the minimum requirement for a PAGASA name's retirement. Utor was retired after last year for half as many fatalities and less than half the damage bill; Rammasun's doomed to be retired at this stage. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 22:00, July 25, 2014 (UTC) ::EDIT: Oops, didn't notice Andrew had already gone into detail on this in his retirement predictions section, sorry Andrew! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:12, July 25, 2014 (UTC) :::It's okay, Dylan, you got some information I didn't cover! :) AndrewTalk To Me 17:11, July 26, 2014 (UTC)